From the Burner to Free
Akiem Hicks Jerseys Stitched , with plenty of Antone Smith in between."Michael Turner to Devonta Freeman, and perhaps beyond. The Falcons have not had the luxury of Matt Ryan-like stability at running back, but then, no organization has for that long. They have had the relative luxury of just three full-time starters from 2008-2018, though injury robbed Michael Turner of his effectiveness and robbed Devonta Freeman of significant portions of the last two years. The story from 2008-2014 was one of marginalizing young, speedy backs whenever the opportunity presented itself. That was defensible when Michael Turner was running over hapless defenders and throwing Eric Weems like a javelin, but it was less defensible when Turner slowed down and, subsequently, when Steven Jackson took over. From 2015-2018, the story has largely been about getting the young backs involved, from Freeman starting to Tevin Coleman carving out a significant role to Ito Smith playing a major one (largely thanks to injury, but still) in year one. Here’s a closer look. Falcons RB EvolutionYearRB1FBRB2RB3RB4YearRB1FBRB2RB3RB4Falcons RBs, 2008-2018As I noted, the common thread running through the Mike Smith years in Atlanta, all of which notably came under either new/old offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter or tight end coach/old OC Mike Mularkey, was a big, physical back taking the lead role. That worked brilliantly from 2008-2011, but Turner’s body began to break down in a major way in 2012 and the passing game under Koetter largely dragged the Falcons offense along. Under Dan Quinn and coordinators Kyle Shanahan and Steve Sarkisian, meanwhile, the team shifted to less of an attack designed to bang between the tackles and one that emphasized versatility, speed, and shiftiness, which was largely perfect for Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman.The noteworthy thing is how the Falcons have strove to have some stability behind their starters, with Jason Snelling, Jerious Norwood and Antone Smith each sticking around for a long time in Atlanta. Smith was criminally underutilized, something we’ll litigate another day, but the Falcons have done a stellar job over the last decade-plus of stocking the cupboard with talented backsthey invested relatively little draft capital into. Tevin Coleman was the highest selection with a third round pick, while Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith were fourth rounders, Jacquizz Rodgers and Brian Hill were fifth rounders, Jason Snelling was one of the team’s best seventh rounders ever, and Antone Smith was an undrafted free agent. The team’s philosophy under Dimitroff has been largely brilliant in that regard, but the Falcons have repeatedly fallen flat on their big contracts since the masterstroke that was the Turner signing, with S-Jax’s decline and the state of the offensive line and now Freeman’s contract, undone to this point by injuries outside of his or the team’s control. But history teaches us that the Falcons have keen eyes for young backs, which is a major comfort with Freeman’s long-term injury outlook so up in the air. We’ll hope that Ito Smith and Qadree Ollison will be the latest in a long line of quality additions
White Marcus Cooper Jerseys , and more than anything, that Devonta Freeman will be the first Falcons back of this era to log more than five seasons as a starter. How do Atlanta’s free agency additions affect their draft strategy? If the Falcons top DL choices are gone at 14, which direction do they go in the first round? Kevin breaks down all nine picks in his most recent 7-round mock draft."The initial free agency frenzy has dissipated, and with it we now have a much clearer view of the Falcons’ needs in the upcoming 2019 NFL Draft. Namely, the additions of G James Carpenter and G Jamon Brown have essentially taken interior offensive line off the board, at least early in the draft. If you’d like to read more in-depth thoughts on how I think free agency shaped the Falcons’ draft strategy, check out this article.Atlanta is armed with nine picks—plenty of ammunition to address their needs on both sides of the ball and add a lot of young depth. For this mock draft simulation, I’ll be using The Draft Network’s Mock Draft Machine—which is, in my opinion, far superior to the other simulators out there. If you missed any of my previous mock drafts, you can find them below:First EditionSecond EditionThird EditionFourth EditionFifth EditionLet’s get started.Round 1, Pick 14: OT Cody Ford, OklahomaIn this scenario, the Falcons missed out on Ed Oliver, Brian Burns, and Montez Sweat. It’s possible the team could go after Christian Wilkins or Clelin Ferrell here, but I’d rather commit to fixing the OL in 2019 with the addition of Oklahoma OT Cody Ford. Atlanta has shown interest in Ford, and at 6’4, 329 he certainly fits the mold of the bigger—but still athletic—offensive linemen that Koetter has added this offseason. I discussed Ford in my OT prospect preview, and here’s how I described his skillset:Round 2, Pick 45: EDGE Charles Omenihu, TexasOne of my favorite second round targets for the Falcons, Texas’ Charles Omenihu could be Atlanta’s new Adrian Clayborn. At 6’6, 275, Omenihu is long enough to succeed on the edge and stout enough to play on the interior in passing situations. He’s a similar player to Rashan Gary, except Omenihu’s price tag will be significantly lower. Here’s what I wrote about Omenihu in my EDGE prospect preview:Round 3, Pick 79: DT Khalen Saunders, Western IllinoisIf the Falcons miss out on Ed Oliver, they’d still be smart to add a potential impact DT later in the draft. Value meets need in the third round with Western Illinois DT Khalen Saunders—an FCS prospect with impressive tape that has been a huge riser throughout the draft process. At 6’0, 324, Saunders is short but stout and incredibly powerful, capable of tossing offensive linemen around like ragdolls.While he isn’t overly explosive off the snap, Saunders has very impressive speed and lateral movement ability. For a DT, he has excellent range and flexibility to plug gaps and chase down plays behind the line of scrimmage. He was downright dominant at his level of competition, and his physical traits give him the upside of a high-level NFL starter. Saunders needs a ton of technique work
Marcus Cooper Jerseys 2019 , however, and he’s probably best relegated to a rotational role early in his career. In the Falcons’ attacking 4-3 scheme, Saunders has a ton of potential.Round 4, Pick 117: WR Miles Boykin, Notre DameDespite the Falcons bringing back WR Justin Hardy, I still believe the team is likely to target a long-term replacement for Mohamed Sanu on Day 3. Luckily, there are a ton of players I love in this area, including Mecole Hardman, Cody Thompson, and Jakobi Meyers. However, in this scenario, the Falcons swing for the fences on the sky-high upside of Notre Dame WR Miles Boykin.Boykin wasn’t utilized much in college, but his athletic profile is downright ridiculous. At 6’3, 225, Boykin managed a 4.42s 40-yard dash (83rd percentile), a 140” broad jump (99th), and a 43.5” vertical (98th) . He also added an impressive 6.77s 3-cone (77th) and 4.07 20-yard shuttle (86th). Boykin is a dynamic deep threat with great size and contested catch ability, but he needs a season to develop his route tree and receiving technique—both of which are severely lacking. The Falcons can afford to let Boykin sit for a year and contribute on special teams, with the hope that he can take over Sanu’s role in 2020 and beyond.Round 4, Pick 137: CB Mark Fields, ClemsonMy two favorite CBs have seen their stock rise since the Combine, with Isaiah Johnson in particular vaulting himself into Day 2 consideration. If the Falcons do miss out on Johnson, they have several good Day 3 options that can also help fill out the depth chart. One of my favorites is Clemson’s Mark Fields, who put on a show at the Combine. Fields had trouble breaking into Clemson’s starting lineup throughout his entire career before being thrust onto the field in the playoffs. He had a good game against Alabama, and his stock has been on the rise ever since. Here’s what I wrote about Fields in my CB prospect preview:Round 5, Pick 152: LB Ben Burr-Kirven, WashingtonThe Falcons will still be on the lookout for LB depth, particularly with De’Vondre Campbell’s status in question for 2020 and Duke Riley showing very little in his starting opportunities. Washington’s Ben Burr-Kirven had already impressed me with his tape, but his Combine workout elevated him from a fringe-UDFA to an intriguing Day 3 prospect. Burr-Kirven is a physical hitter with surprisingly good athletic ability, but his 6’0, 230 stature will limit his appeal to teams like Atlanta who don’t require a ton of size from their LBs. He’s very natural in zone coverage and is capable of covering a lot of ground with his natural athleticism and change-of-direction ability. Burr-Kirven’s physicality masks some of his physical weaknesses, but his short stature can make him a liability in coverage against TEs. At worst, Burr-Kirven will be a rotational LB with great special teams ability. Quinn’s defense could be the ideal fit for Burr-Kirven to eventually carve out a starting role.Round 5, Pick 172: S Sheldrick Redwine, MiamiIf the Falcons are looking to upgrade their safety depth (and hopefully move on from Jordan Richards)
White Prince Amukamara Jerseys , Miami’s Sheldrick Redwine has the versatility to backup both strong and free safety. Redwine has solid size at 6’0, 196 coupled with impressive athletic ability—his 4.44s 40-yd dash puts him in the 90th percentile for safeties. He seems like exactly the type of player Quinn covets in his secondary. I wrote about Redwine in my safety prospect preview, and here’s how I described his talents:Round 6, Pick 186: RB Devine Ozigbo, NebraskaDespite the Falcons signing of RB Kenjon Barner, I still think the team will add another RB in the draft. That pick might come a little later, but that’s just fine in 2019’s very deep class. Even in the sixth round, Atlanta can add RB2 talent in the form of Nebraska’s Devine Ozigbo—one of the biggest Combine snubs of the year.A one-year wonder that had a production explosion under new head coach Scott Frost, the 6’0, 230 Ozigbo totally redefined his game and excelled in the new zone blocking scheme. Ozigbo has good vision, impressive physicality, and excellent agility and change-of-direction skills. He’s not an elite receiver, but he’s certainly capable of making plays there and can also contribute as a pass protector. Ozigbo doesn’t have breakaway speed and will never be a home run hitter in the NFL, but he’s a very well-rounded back that would be an ideal fit in Atlanta’s offense. In the sixth round, he’d be a steal.Round 7, Pick 230: C Lamont Gaillard, GeorgiaWhile the Falcons addressed guard in free agency, they’d still be wise to add a developmental center to groom behind Alex Mack. Georgia’s Lamont Gaillard could be a fit there, particularly if he manages to last this long in the draft. Gaillard lacks ideal size, but he’s got toughness in spades and has the leadership mentality that the Falcons love to see from players. I had the Falcons taking Gaillard in a previous mock draft, and here’s what I had to say about his skillset:AnalysisAfter missing out on their top defensive line targets in Round 1, the Falcons decide to commit to the offensive line rebuild with the selection of OT Cody Ford. With Ford taking over at RT, Atlanta will go into the 2019 season with a much larger, much more physical lineup—particularly on the right side. The team then focuses on the defensive line with the Day 2 selections of EDGE Charles Omenihu and DT Khalen Saunders. Omenihu fills the void left by Adrian Clayborn, with inside/outside flexibility and tremendous physical talent. Saunders is raw, but his potential is sky-high—particularly in a one-gap scheme like Atlanta’s.The Falcons then turn their attention to filling out the depth across the roster. With their first fourth round pick, the team targets WR Miles Boykin—a physical marvel with tremendous size and athletic talent that simply needs some development to reach his potential. CB Mark Fields joins the Falcons as a high-upside slot option that can provide excellent depth and special teams ability. In the fifth round, the Falcons add more defensive depth in LB Ben Burr-Kirven and S Sheldrick Redwine. Burr-Kirven fits the athletic profile that Quinn targets and could potentially be an upgrade over Duke Riley. Redwine is an athletic, versatile safety prospect that can backup both SS and FS, with the potential to grow into a future starter in big nickel packages.With their final two picks, the Falcons target even more offensive depth. RB Devine Ozigbo is an absurd value this late, as he has starting talent in a zone blocking scheme coupled with strong physical traits. C Lamont Gaillard is still in need of some technical development, but he can be groomed for a year or two behind Alex Mack with an eye on becoming long-term depth or an eventual starter.What do you think of this mock draft for the Falcons? Any players that you’d love to see them draft? Share your own mock drafts in the comments!
